A bandwagon is starting to roll? And taxi for Gregory Campbell please.

Following John Redwood's revelation the other day, this from the Monmouth Conservative MP (and as staunch a Unionist MP as you'll find in the UK), David Davies:

Mr Davies said: “As a proud Welshman and a unionist we cannot possibly have a situation where we as Welsh MPs are telling the English what to do with their health service and education and they can’t have any say over what goes on in Wales. Surely the answer for all unionists, all across the United Kingdom, is to give the English their own parliament with similar powers to the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and have some kind of federal structure dealing with everything else that matters to the United Kingdom?”

And there was more:

But London Tory MP Mark Field told him: "There is one leg, and rather an important leg, of the United Kingdom, that feels under-represented and unloved, which is one of the reasons this West Lothian question is becoming more high profile in England."

And more:

Totnes Tory MP Sarah Wollaston said there was a great feeling of unfairness within English constituencies. "We feel under-represented but equally we feel over-taxed and we wonder how it is we can be subsidising university education for Scottish pupils and how we can be subsidising free prescription charges."

And more:

The Constitutional Affairs Minister, Mark Harper, who is Tory MP for the Forest of Dean, said: "The English-Welsh border has become more of a border, more of a real barrier, since devolution, than it was beforehand. That is certainly the experience of my constituents."

I've previously said that the growth of an anti-Conservative and, by extension, anti-London, tendency within Scottish and Welsh Labour could start to pull that party in narrow, regionalist directions;  it seems now that also many of the English Conservatives are looking to "federalise" the supremacy of Westminster out of existence. How they propose to do that whilst strengthening the Union has not been satisfactorily explained.

And the sole Northern Irish contribution from Gregory Campbell wasn't his finest hour in the House:

Does the hon. Gentleman agree that the United Kingdom's cohesion and unity might be helped just a little if the Prime Minister made more visits to the countries of the UK-Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland? He has not been to Northern Ireland since the general election.

Errr... who's that bloke then standing beside Owen Paterson?  Top-class research there Gregory.

And while you sort that out, you should also get cracking on alternatives to the English Parliament and "English Votes for English Measures" if you genuinely think they would weaken the Union because The West Lothian Question and the corresponding English resentment aren't going to disappear anytime soon- there needs to be an urgent Unionist solution to both problems.

John Redwood no longer British? No longer a Unionist?

John Redwood, talking about completing the census form, is an extremely grumpy man this morning and with good reason.

However, this sentence puzzled me:

On the Census form they forced me to decide was I British or English? I always used to think of myself as both.

Now, I haven't seen the final English/Welsh census form but the draft that I did look at put the question thus:

How would you describe your national identity?
You can choose more than one

If he no longer feels British then fair enough, he should come out and admit it but, as far as I'm aware, the form isn't forcing him to make that choice.

He does make valid several points (and several not so valid ones, e.g. it would be over my dead body that I'd permit either Labour's devolution experiment or Salmond to remove my British identity) but it is not clear whether he still considers himself a UK Unionist.

Again, he should come out and clarify where exactly he now stands on the Union.

1. Labour 2. Conservatives 3. Plaid Cymru.........................4. Liberal Democrats

It's only an opinion poll, so usual caveats apply:

LABOUR is the only party to have won a referendum bounce in the polls and is now on track to gain a majority in the May Assembly elections, according to figures released last night.

Support for First Minister Carwyn Jones’ party now stands at 48%, up from 45% in January and far above the May 2007 result of 32%.

Conservatives are slightly ahead of Plaid Cymru (20 to 19%), Liberals are bumping along at 7%, the UKIP and Greens may well also grab a seat.

There are several varying seat projections but if trends are reflected at the ballot box, then Labour will be running a majority administration post the May election with, no doubt, Mr Tango-Man (as he does here) claiming the credit!

Three into one would go?

I suppose in the wake of last week's result, this was inevitable:

MPs have suggested merging the UK government departments responsible for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.


A report by a Commons committee recommends a "serious look" at the Whitehall arrangements for the three devolved nations.

Devolution has removed most of the powers from the job (of the Welsh Office) and its counterparts in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

A counter-argument could run that it is the three Offices which are helping to curb the more extreme tendencies of the Devocrats, but it is the staffing figures which are most interesting:

The Wales Office employs 60 staff, the Scottish Office 100 and the Northern Ireland Office 110.

The NIO really needs double the amount of their counterparts in Wales?

"Breaking up" is not the hardest thing to do, really.

The Belfast Telegraph:

Tom Elliott has said his party’s UCUNF electoral pact with the Conservatives is now dead.

In the coming Assembly election the UUP leader will advise his voters to give their second and subsequent preferences to fellow unionists.

Actually, in typical Elliott-style, it isn't 100% clear what he is saying about the Conservative link... but if it is finally kaput, then  it really is the best thing for both parties in the short-term, although in the long-term it should be the Conservatives who will reap more benefit from the frissure.

Also, I'm not sure how on one hand you can say you regard the DUP as "tribal" and "sectarian", whilst on the other then urge Unionists to keep their vote within "the family"?

Searchlight, The Guardian, Cruddas see the problem, but struggle for a solution?

From yesterday's Guardian:

Huge numbers of Britons would support an anti-immigration English nationalist party if it was not associated with violence and fascist imagery, according to the largest survey into identity and extremism conducted in the UK.

A Populus poll found that 48% of the population would consider supporting a new anti-immigration party committed to challenging Islamist extremism, and would support policies to make it statutory for all public buildings to fly the flag of St George or the union flag.
Anti-racism campaigners said the findings suggested Britain's mainstream parties were losing touch with public opinion on issues of identity and race

That first sentence should probably read "Huge numbers of English would support an anti-immigration English nationalist party..." but apart from that, "anti-immigration", "challenging Islamist extremism" and "statutory" flying the flag- I'm not sure that outlook can be described as "far-right" unless you'd also describe the views held by a large proportion of the Conservative (and Labour Party for that matter) as also fascist. Also the removal of violence and "fascist imagery" ( I do hope Searchlight are not referring to the national flag here) are set as a pre-condition for the support of such a party, which must be at least an optimistic sign surely? Whether it's Searchlight's intention or not, it comes across to me as if they would rather the violence and fascist imagery remained rather than have such a democratic party, along the lines of those seen in mainland western Europe, emerging into the electoral system.

Quote of the day

Theresa May:

"The Conservative Party’s always stood in every seat and I think it’s important to us and I’m personally very pleased that we plan - and I see that Sayeeda said something about this recently - to continue to run candidates in Northern Ireland as well."

Hmmm...."stood in every seat"? "continue to run candidates in Northern Ireland"?

SNP revival... in the polls

A sensational surge! A storm back! A whisker!
An Ipsos MORI poll:

With the Holyrood election now under three months away, the latest poll from Ipsos MORI reveals a significant reversal in fortunes for the two main parties, with the SNP now holding a slight advantage, having been 10 points behind Labour in November 2010. Among those certain to vote on May 5th, the SNP’s share of the vote now stands at 37%, up by 6 percentage points since November 2010. In the same period, Labour’s share of the vote has fallen by 5 percentage points and is currently at 36%, while the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats are largely unchanged at 13% and 10% respectively. This is first time since February 2010 that an Ipsos MORI poll has shown a lead for the governing SNP

Most interesting thing for me is that the Scottish Conservatives and Liberal Democrats standing has remained unchanged over quite a rough period- they have collectively hit rock-bottom, only way is up? Secondly, whatever happens and barring a miracle, there is going to be a minority administration or even a coalition needing the support of the UK's governing parties- that's going to make things very interesting...

"Votes for Prisioners"- a sideways rap-up.

Checking again through the details of last week's crucial "Votes for Prisioners" debate and vote, several interesting points came to light.
 
Firstly, whilst the three Plaid Cymru MPs (Edwards, Llwyd and Williams) voted "no" to David Davis' motion that this House:

"...is of the opinion that legislative decisions of this nature should be a matter for democratically-elected lawmakers; and supports the current situation in which no prisoner is able to vote except those imprisoned for contempt, default or on remand"

...three SNP MPs (Hosie, Weir and Whiteford) voted "yes". Proving, again, perhaps Plaid Cymru could be justified in defining themselves as more "progressive" on social issues than their Scottish brethren?
 
Joining Plaid Cymru in the "No" lobby was Lady Hermon, a fact not that surprising in terms of public perception of her liberalism, but one that also doesn't really tie in with her previous conservative voting approach to, for example- a stricter asylum system, abortion,"Europe" and the removal of the hunting ban.
An independently-thinking independent, in other words?!

Another NI MP happy to describe herself as a "progressive", Naomi Long (who was incidently back in Belfast not much later on that very same day to pick up the Slugger Politician of the Year Award), did make a rather eloquent speech mid-afternoon in favour of granting prisioners' voting rights. However, for whatever reason(?), as she pointed out at the beginning of her speech, she wasn't able to make the vote three hours later.

But in truth, considering the important implications of the bill, it was a rather pitiful turnout from Northern Ireland's MPs generally; along with Lady Hermon, only Nigel Dodds and Ian Paisley Jr managed to make it to the lobby (both voting "yes").

Could be an historic Thursday...

Landmark day in for civil liberties in the United Kingdom...:

Identity cards will be consigned to history today as the database recording the biometric details of thousands of people goes up in flames. Hard disk drives from the national identity register, which underpinned the ID card scheme, will be shredded and incinerated in a symbolic demonstration of efforts to rein back the "database state" and restore civil liberties.

... and for the (potential) re-assertion of our right as a sovereign nation to decide our own laws and practises:

MPs have overwhelmingly voted to keep the ban on prisoners voting, in defiance of a ruling by the European Court of Human Rights.

The House of Commons' decision is not binding, but could put pressure on ministers to go against the Strasbourg court's decision.

MPs backed a motion opposing the move by a 234 to 22 - a majority of 212.

The government says it has to end the ban on inmates voting, or face being sued for tens of millions of pounds.

Senior Tory backbencher David Davis and former Labour Home Secretary Jack Straw tabled the motion, urging ministers to defy the European Court of Human Rights ruling that a blanket ban on prisoners voting was illegal.

During a Commons, Mr Davis said Parliament must "assert" itself on an issue of "great democratic importance".

And it did... it's now up to the government to "walk the walk" as well as merely "talking the talk".

Elliott and Conservative HQ in plot to finish off local party?

Tom Elliott, 8th December 2010:

After a meeting yesterday, it has been agreed that the Conservative Party and the Ulster Unionist Party will continue to engage in a serious and constructive dialogue about an on-going political and electoral relationship between the two parties as we look ahead to the next European and General Elections.

The UUP intend to put forward proposals for approval by their Executive committee in January 2011 which will then be considered by the Board of the Conservative Party. These proposals will include the understanding that any future UUP MP's and current and future MEP's will take the Conservative Party Whip.

In the meantime, both parties are conscious of the forthcoming District Council and Assembly elections in May 2011. In this regard, it has been agreed that:

1. Both parties will put up candidates in the District Council Elections, with a view to elected councillors co-operating in Local Government, as rules currently permit this to happen.

2. In the Assembly elections only the UUP will put up candidates. This is because under the current rules parties are unable to fight elections in coalition and once the elections have taken place are unable to enter a post election coalition within the Assembly."

Elliott had spoken the night before at a meeting in Westminster and, according to a Conservative who was there, expressed his belief that:

◦A franchise model is his view of the way forward. This means the UUP brand remains, elected UUP members would take the Conservative whip at Westminster

◦As a franchise, local Conservative competition is counterproductive – this presents a challenge for symbiosis with established local Conservative associations

That last point was in Steve Nimmons' own words but whatever Elliott said, it was interpreted by some (an interpretation which the UUP told me directly by email was wrong) that he wanted the Conservatives to close down their NI Branch as he felt they were “very detrimental to the relationship that we (the UUP and the Conservative leadership) can build”.

But however he may have put it, it was clear that he wanted the Conservatives locally out of the way.

Between 8th of December and Baroness Warsi's press-release last week, we had the N/W Belfast "Solidarity" pact between the DUP and UUP, we had Lord Empey finally confirming that he was a UUP not Conservative Lord and we had Mike Nesbitt backtracking on the agreement of 8th December re the taking of the Conservative whip. at Westminster.

Bear those three events in mind and remember what Baroness Warsi was promising last week:

1. The Conservative Party in Northern Ireland has committed itself to an ongoing programme of campaigning and development
2. New campaign headquarters in Bangor, Co. Down.
3. A full time member of staff will be based at the headquarters
4.One of the Party’s most senior campaign directors has been appointed to liaise with the Party in Northern Ireland.
5. The Party is committed to the development of progressive centre right politics which offer the electorate of Northern Ireland the opportunity to cast their votes for and participate directly with the national Government of the United Kingdom.
6.The Party will continue to review how Conservatives in Northern Ireland can play a full part in the Conservative Party as in every other part of the United Kingdom
7.Senior Conservatives in Northern Ireland will work with the Board of the Party to develop that relationship.
8. They desire to see Conservative Associations formed in every Northern Ireland constituency and an active programme of membership recruitment.

Points 5,6,7 could certainly equally apply in the scenario Elliott was envisaging (ie the gradual demise of a N.Irish Conservative Party).

Points 1,2,3,4 and 8 point towards a commitment from the "centre" towards the local party that certainly doesn't fit in with the UUP leader's expressed vision or hope.

And it's because of the last sentence I have problems with both Alex Kane's and Jeff Peel's conclusion (here and here)- they both believe that this proposal is, in effect, another stitch-up of the local party.

Now, it may well be (and Messrs Kane and Peel have got a much deeper insight into the workings and thinking of the Conservative Party than I ever will have) that it is indeed part of a longer term HQ plot to finish off the local branch here; Cameron and Paterson might be anticipating that the UUP will ride its slump and become a "profitable" (ie delivering MPs), self-supporting, centre-right "franchise" in the near future thus removing the need for a duplicate Conservative Party.

If true, then that latter assumption, less than three months before the Assembly Elections, is based on very shaky indeed foundations at this moment in time. With regards the former belief- as I commented on Jeff's blog, if Conservative HQ wanted to finish off the NI Conservatives, then a simple silence would have sufficed- why waste the money and time connected with, for example, appointing a full-time member of staff?

Whatever their UK leaders' motives, however, the ball has moved very firmly into the NI Conservatives' court now. If they sit back and wait for that promised central support to magically produce votes at the ballot-box, then Kane's and Peel's prophecy will be fulfilled before very long. 

Despite the dependency and entitlist mentality engendered by most of the its poltical elite, in Northern Ireland there is also an underlying, though at present rather dormant, underlying entrepreneurial strand. There is quite a strong tradition of self-help on the wider societal basis. In other words, there is an ideological potential for a modern Conservative Party to tap into but it is a medium/long term project which depends on a local party being clear what it stands for and also being capable of communicating that message to the electorate. It also needs a firmer on-the-ground involvement (eg joining the educational debate, getting involved in planning inquiries etc) than has previously been evident.

But  I believe, at this present moment in time, the space to at least think about those points has been given by the strategy announced last week- it's now up to the local party to make the most of the opportunity.

Scottish "independence" Wiki-leaked

In all honesty, there's not a lot of new or previously unknown information in the US Embassy's leaked communication from  last year re the SNP and the possibility of the independence referendum taking place.

This perhaps is the most intriguing:
Conservative - SNP Deal? ------------------------

7.(SBU/NF) The political jockeying around the Scottish independence referendum has created a climate of political intrigue in Scotland, with facts and rumors generally intertwined. Since the Tories (historically weak in Scotland) allied themselves with the SNP in 2007 as part of the SNP-led minority government, SNP insiders and political pundits have suggested that the SNP struck a deal with the Tories whereby the Conservative Party would not obstruct a Scottish independence referendum vote in exchange for mutual support in Westminster and Holyrood elections. Scottish Tory leader Annabel Goldie told the Edinburgh PO in November 2009: "While we are very opposed to Scotland leaving the Union, if the will of the Scottish people is for Independence, we won't stand in the way. But we believe that the will is not there." Although the Scottish Tories are fundamentally opposed to Scottish independence, they do not oppose a vote as a matter of policy. Whether the SNP-Tory deal exists remains in question, and any real effect it would have would be determined by how well the Conservatives fare in the Westminster polls. In Westminster, Tory leader David Cameron has not made any clear pronouncements about the Conservatives Party position on an independence referendum for Scotland.

Oops, there goes another nail into the coffin...

On last night's Hearts and Minds, Owen Paterson, when asked about the prospect of Martin McGuinness getting the First Minister job:

"I think it would be an extraordinary endorsement of the progress that has been made here . and I think we should celebrate that fact that everyone wants to vote...but how that election turns out , as Secretary of State, is not for me to comment on. It's down to local people to go to the polling booths and vote."

Not sure that was an intentional "oops" or not...
But I think it (along with Baroness Warsi's announcement yesterday) gives the UUP now the excuse now to walk completely from their "on-off-kinda" relationship with the Conservatives; something which would be the best thing for both parties at this juncture.

Result!

Jeff and Chekov have beaten me to it…but it looks like we have got our answer from Conservative HQ this morning from Baroness Warsi (to whom Mr Paterson obviously passed on our email;)):

The Conservative Party in Northern Ireland has committed itself to an ongoing programme of campaigning and development and will shortly move into a new campaign headquarters in Bangor, Co. Down. A full time member of staff will be based at the headquarters and one of the Party’s most senior campaign directors has been appointed to liaise with the Party in Northern Ireland.

The Party is committed to the development of progressive centre right politics which offer the electorate of Northern Ireland the opportunity to cast their votes for and participate directly with the national Government of the United Kingdom. The Party will continue to review how Conservatives in Northern Ireland can play a full part in the Conservative Party as in every other part of the United Kingdom and senior Conservatives in Northern Ireland will work with the Board of the Party to develop that relationship.

Central to that development will be the Party’s desire to see Conservative Associations formed in every Northern Ireland constituency and an active programme of membership recruitment at a local level.

Conservative Party co-chairman Baroness Warsi said: “The Conservative Party in Northern Ireland has the unequivocal support of the Party nationally. Politics in Northern Ireland continues to evolve and we are determined to be at the heart of that evolution. Our approach will be one of active engagement – starting with the fielding of candidates in the Local Council elections in May.”

ENDS

Busy at the moment, there will be a longer post following later on.

Update:
Another result!

Armstrong returns as Chairman of the local Conservatives

The Conservative Party in Northern Ireland today announced that Irwin Armstrong had resumed his position as Chairman of the local party.
Irwin Armstrong commented.

“When I tendered my resignation in December I said it was untenable for me to remain as Chairman since it appeared that the party in Northern Ireland would no longer be able to contest elections and that I did not have the support of the leadership.

Today’s announcement from our joint Chairman Baroness Warsi confirms the unequivocal support of our leadership and board for Conservatives in Northern Ireland, their wish to have a close relationship with local Conservatives, to be at the heart of politics here, and that we will be contesting elections in future. This demonstrates that the reasons for tendering my resignation have been addressed and I have therefore consented to the request of the Executive and local membership that I withdraw my resignation.”

The party also commented on their future plans in Northern Ireland.

Members of our Executive have agreed that we would not now be able to properly contest the Assembly elections as we will not have the necessary infrastructure in place due to the events of recent months. We can however confirm that we will have that infrastructure in place for all future elections including an office and full time staff to support the local Executive and candidates.

We will therefore watch with interest the results of the Assembly elections in May and then decide on a detailed long term strategy that will enable us to make a real difference as we pursue our One Northern Ireland, One Community, One Future politics, and put up credible candidates with the experience that can provide the leadership Northern Ireland requires.

We look forward to building our party across Northern Ireland and attracting members and future candidates from all sections of the community who believe in our vision of a positive future for everyone

Legislation (Territorial Extent) Bill 2010-11

A Private Members' Bill introduced by Harriett Baldwin, the Conservative MP for West Worcestershire, that's worth Unionists keeping at least half an eye on for obvious reasons:

Legislation (Territorial Extent) Bill 2010-11

Type of Bill:Private Members' Bill (Ballot Bill)

Sponsor:Harriett Baldwin


A Bill to require the Secretary of State, when preparing draft legislation for publication, to do so in such a way that the effect of that legislation on England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland is separately and clearly identified; to require the Secretary of State to issue a statement to the effect that in his or her view the provisions of the draft legislation are in accordance with certain principles relating to territorial extent; and for connected purposes.

The Bill was presented, through the ballot procedure, to Parliament on 30 June 2010.

There was no debate at that stage and it will be presented for its second reading on 11th February.

Logic starts unravelling the UUP-Conservative deal?

On the day we sent him our open letter, Mr Paterson appears to have been otherwise engaged:

The party's (UUP) link with the Conservatives — the confirmation of which has probably been the biggest achievement of Tom Elliott's tenure to date — appears increasingly shaky.

A source outside both parties has told the News Letter that Mr Elliott walked out of a meeting with secretary of state Owen Paterson last Monday after a heated debate about the Conservatives' refusal to change the rules on selecting the first and deputy first ministers.

Mr Elliott, who earlier in the week was scathing of some UUP members for publicly talking down the party, politely declines to discuss the incident.

But, coming as Conservative Central Office appears to be reconsidering the nature of the Tories' link to the UUP, it hardly augers well for the future of that relationship.

On Monday Strangford UUP candidate Mike Nesbitt appeared to suggest that the UUP's link with the Tories had weakened, saying that it merely meant that the UUP "will look favourably on taking the Tory whip" in Europe or Westminster, but only "on issues that do not pertain specifically to Northern Ireland".

I did refer to that "clear as mud" clarification from Mike Nesbitt last week- in the confusion of Devolved UK 2011, how do you now differentiate between what "pertains specifically to Northern Ireland" and what doesn't?

"We're increasing our vote, time to split"

More separatist pressure from within the Conservative Party, although this time not from within its Scottish branch:

A prominent Welsh Conservative has called for his party to formally break away from the party in England.

Harri Lloyd Davies, chairman of Swansea West Conservatives, said the move would strengthen the Tories' credentials with Welsh voters.

"I hope, as I say, that there will be a different party in Wales."

He added: "I think it's an image problem at the moment. I think a lot of people out there would agree with a lot of what the Conservatives in Wales are saying, but because of the name, to be honest, the fact is that we are still seen as the 'boys from London'."

His evidence being what?

The increased vote the Welsh Conservatives received in the last General Election?
And as far as I am aware, there is no "party in England" to breakaway from; there is however, a UK Conservative Party, is it the UK designation that he has problems with?

Lord Empey, shouldn't he be concentrating on the Lords?

I have a follow-up post on Open Unionism about whether Lord Empey should be even putting himself for the Stormont dog-fight in May.

Curiouser and Curiouser...

Speaking on BBC Radio Ulster's Nolan show yesterday, UUP candidate Mike Nesbitt with regards to the party's relationship with the Conservatives adapted a quote from Alice in Wonderland:

"If we had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn't. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn't be. And what it wouldn't be, it would. You see? That's our relationship with the Conservatives”

No, of course, he didn't really; what he did say was:

... the UUP's relationship with the Tories now meant that in Europe and Westminster the party "will look favourably at taking the Tory whip on issues that do not pertain specifically to Northern Ireland".

Now, that is not exactly what the agreement reached in December by the two parties actually declared:

"These proposals will include the understanding that any future UUP MP’s and current and future MEP’s will take the Conservative Party Whip. "

No qualification or equivocation there.
So... which is it?

And in the meantime, Lord Empey, is he still a Conservative Peer or not?
(I have a horrible feeling on this one that an announcement was made which only I've missed; an alternative explanation that the DUP are mischief-making is also not beyond the realms of credibility)

Not one of Ms Goldie's best weekends...

It seemed everywhere I looked there was a screamer about either her or the Scottish Conservatives.

Mail on Sunday:

THE Scottish Tories were last night facing financial meltdown as their main donors threatened to withdraw funding unless Annabel Goldie quits as leader.

Daily Telegraph:

Effective control of the Scottish Conservatives has been passed to London party chiefs while an overhaul aimed at improving their “diabolical” election results north of the Border is implemented.

Her fightback is nothing if not ermm...unorthodox:

The text of the piece shows Scots Tory leader Annabel Goldie openly prepared to consider alliances with whichever of the two major parties – the SNP or Labour – emerges with most seats from the Scottish Election 2011, on 5th May

She may be prepared to consider such alliances, hard to imagine that her party is.