It's the day after the General Election in 2010 and Yellow Belly Brown, having been forced finally to go to the nation, has been seriously thumped by Cameron and the Conservatives.
The received wisdom, from six months ago is that for a number of reasons this would be Bad News for the Union.
I really don't think it will be:
a) Cameron and the Conservatives, unlike Brown (who has run to drape himself in the Union flag for purely party political reasons) are Unionists by conviction- much easier to fight your corner when you genuinely believe in the cause you're fighting for.
b) The Conservative Party (and their close allies), unlike Labour, will be contesting and I'm convinced winning seats in all 4 parts of the UK- when they become the government of all 4 parts of the UK, will this fact weaken or strengthen their moral right to govern all 4 parts of the UK?
c) The Conservatives did not only recognise the potential of the "stain of nationalism" much earlier than Labour, they also have a much more realistic grasp of the threat posed by the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein. It's a threat to their the integrity of their whole nation, not their partisan hegemony in only 2 parts of it.
d) The modern Conservative Party is one, by necessity, built on pragmatism and a fair bit of libertarianism. Brown's attempt to impose a "one-size-fits all" version of Britishness will not be repeated; the much more sustainable (and easier to sell) "umbrella" version will inevitably emerge.
e) The Conservative Party will be (as per point b) the government of all the UK. It will also be, unlike Labour presently, "governing England" with the mandate of the English electorate.
There are obviously other reasons why I believe the Union is currently moving into a stronger position but these are not connected directly with the strong probability of a Conservative government next year; Conservative and Unionist readers feel free to add your own reasons- I'll add them to my list above!