If you understand spread betting then Betfair is showing alively market at the minute with regards the General Election:
Party: Spread (sell-buy)
Conservatives: 347-353 seats
Labour: 211-216
Lib Dems: 53.5-54.5
SNP: 10-12.5
Plaid Cymru: 4-5.5
DUP: 6.5-8.5
The last three figures are interesting; in best case scenario for those last three parties, it would a respective gain of 5 and 2 for the SNP and PC and a loss of possibly one for the DUP. Ironically, I think that final position would leave Robinson a happier man than Salmond.
And a worse case scenario of an overall majority of 50ish (if my notoriously dodgy maths is correct) would be something the Conservatives could live with I'm sure.
4 comments:
Got to agree with you re-SNP. Even though they are aiming for 20 seats I feel that it will be a swing too far in some seats.
Very optimistic(or should I say pessimistic over DUP) I don't reckon they will get as many as 6 or 8, the combined pressure of UUP and TUV will take it's toll. Ye never know though.
Ladbrokes are predicting roughly the same number of seats for the SNP- they need to have a very good campaign or Labour needs to blow it bigtime to get anywhere near the 20, at this stage I can't see it.
Re the DUP, amonth ago I'd have agreed with you but they've done a very good damage limitation exercise re Robbo and the amount of propaganda that's rolling out about PnJ has to be seen to believed. the Conservatives and UUp shooting themselves unnecessarily in the foot didn't help. If it were tomorrow, 6 DUP MPs, 1 TUV, 2 C&U and 3 up for grabs between Unionist and nationalist parties.
The bigger question is what will happen with the DUP if, as could well happen, thye lose both N Antrim and E Belfast- that would eliminate both the Robinson and Paisley dynasties from the picture leaving an interesting leadership puzzle.
The irony of P&J is that like the UUP back in the 90's the DUP were dragged kicking and screaming through the negotiations and subsequent deal. Yet they will benefit from a large part of the Unionist electorate who wanted them to 'get on with it!'
Instead of meeting in OO halls perhaps the best strategy(in hindsight) should have been for the UUP to join the electorates calls to 'get on with it' and grab the sane DUP vote who just aren't interested in securing orange feet on fenian streets. Plus the fact the latest stalling (justified or not)doesn't help the UUP's image to a weary peace happy population.
>>..both N Antrim and E Belfast- that would eliminate both the Robinson and Paisley dynasties...<<
I only ask this because I am concerned...........but are you on drugs? Won't happen!
Jim Allister has avery good chance in N Antrim; Paisley Jr is widely loathed in the constituency and Paisley Sr is ten years too old for the contest. Robinson, I think, could also be vulnerable. Not so much over the P&J question but the expenses issue- depending on the C&U candidate (Trevor Ringland is being mentioned) and what happens tactically with the TUV and Alliance turnout, our First Minister could well be toast
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