Brown's demise...good news for the Union?

Mr Brown, speaking exclusively to the BBC's Andrew Marr on Saturday in Downing St, said: "I'll not be calling an election. I have a vision for change in Britain and I want to show people how in government we're implementing it

More like he’s had a vision of tomorrow’s News of the World Poll:
A poll to be published by Sunday's News of the World puts the Tories ahead by 6% in marginal seats, with the party overall at 44% against Labour's 38%.
Translated into a general election, it would mean a hung Parliament with Labour holding 306 seats and the Tories 246.

Posted 6th of October 2007, what Gordon Brown would give for those kind of figures now!

More than any other event I suspect, the Brown Bottle-job of late 2007 will be in years to come regarded as the defining (if not turning) point of this particular administration- more specifically though, in terms of this blog's focus, at the time I reckoned that it was a good thing for the Union that he had taken cover and decided to plod on.

If he were to go tomorrow (and at the minute, let’s face it, anything’s possible) would Unionism be in a better or worse position than 19 months ago with regards to the likely results from a snap General Election?

Six factors (almost all of which would have been completely unforeseen when I wrote the initial post) have contributed in changing the situation from that of October 2007:

1.The complete and utter collapse of Labour across the board.

An election tomorrow will produce in all likelihood gains for not only obviously the Conservatives, but also the SNP and Plaid Cymru. The latter two will gain not necessarily (covered in point 3)) because of a rise in separatist sentiment, but mainly because of the implosion in the Labour vote in both Scotland and Wales. Although this will contribute towards a strengthening of the Prophets of Endism and Doom; in reality, in terms of numbers, several more Nat MPs at Westminster won’t matter that much. However, Labour’s collapse in England, hopefully combined with Conservative/Unionist gains in N.Ireland, Scotland and Wales, will result, for the first time ever, a truly UK national government that has representatives from all parts of that nation. Psychologically, a very important fact.

2.The cast iron certainty of a Cameron government.

Contrary to my initial impressions of a year and a half ago, I believe now Cameron is a Unionist by conviction. There is also a clear strategy at work which, although I haven't always agreed with (eg in the attitude towards the SNP) is at least one that has been thought-out and been designed to develop long-term the Union's strength. Brown, in contrast, too often seemed to believe that wrapping himself in the Union flag and studiously ignoring the threats of the various nationalisms in the vain hope they will disappear down the plug-hole would be sufficient. There is also a clearer awareness amongst the Conservatives than Labour, I believe, of the inherent weaknesses of asymmetrical devolution and in particular how it has affected the largest part of the Kingdom, England. Changes to such weaknesses as Barnett in the long term will strenghten national cohesion.

3.The world economic crisis.

This, I think, has been a reality check for nationalism across the United Kingdom. Their previous poster boys, namely the Republic and Iceland, have taken a hammering which, comparatively (in terms of the effect of the actual taxpayer on the street), has been worse than that suffered in the UK. Would an independent Scotland, Wales and "United Ireland" have *survived* this crisis? Yes, but in order for *independence* and *unity* to make sense, the average citizen in all three parts would need to have not only needed to survive, but also to have done better in real, hard financial terms than they would have done by remaining a part of a United Kingdom. The SNP, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Fein have not provided any evidence whatsoever to prove that would have been the case.

4.The expenses scandals

Undoubtedly this has damaged the prestige of UK politics in general and Westminster in particular. Has it weakened the Union? In so far as the Scottish and Welsh Assemblies (their N.Irish equivalent has problems of its own in that regard) have been proven, on the face of it, to be "cleaner" and more "transparent", then yes The question now is how much real desire is there on the part of the national parties to clean up the act of their representatives. If they are serious, then the damage will be short-lived; if not, then there will be an inevitable drift of public sentiment away from Westminster towards Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh.

5.The longer-term growth in popularity of both SNP and Plaid Cymru not being matched by a growth in those wanting independence.

In both Scotland and Wales the pattern apparent in Northern Ireland for sometime is now the norm. Opinion polls are not showing a rise in nationalist sentiment commensurate with the rise in those supporting the SNP, Plaid Cymru and in Northern Ireland, the consolidation in the size of Sinn Fein's electorate. Whilst Sinn Fein gets its support mainly for being perceived as the strongest defender of its "community"'s rights, the SNP and PC are doing better and better because of the fact that their main rival, Labour, are in freefall and they are seen as the best means of protest for disgruntled Labour voters.

6.The Conservative party and the UUP link-up

Potentially (and despite yesterday's solid result it is still only potentially), this has the ability to revolutionise Northern Irish politics and push it out of the communal comfort-zones into an arena where we enjoy (or suffer!) the same politics as the rest of the United Kingdom. Perhaps surprisingly, considering Jim Nicholson's re-election, I'm more sceptical now than I was a couple of months ago about the real desire for the necessary change of mindset amongst certain elements within the UUP. There has to be a movement away from what the DUP and TUV offer their "people", communal solidarity, a movement towards what the Conservative Party offers in the rest of the United Kingdom. But I'm a natural cynic at heart, so perhaps I will be pleasantly surprised...if I am, then the future of the grouping is bright and the consolidation of Northern Ireland's position within the mainstream of UK politics is assured.

Points 2, 3, 5 and hopefully 6 means that Unionism would face an election tomorrow in a better state than when Mr Brown belly suddenly turned yellow in the autumn of 2007. Point 1 is a neutral, the gains of nationalism in N.Ireland, Scotland and Wales would be offset by at last a truly UK government. It's the expenses question which is the great unknown threat here. If Brown falls within the next few days/weeks, it's still going to be very much in the electorate's minds. The boil has to be lanced and seen to be lanced as soon as possible. If it is then, we can fasten our seat belts for what will still be a slightly bumpy ride for the Union, if it isn't, then I fear the long term damage caused by it could well put all Mr Salmond's, Gerry Adam's and Plaid Cymru's efforts to destroy our nation into the shade.