Friday, May 8, 2009

How about a de Brun-Allister double at 11-2?

Paddy Power seems to be happy to take your cash again on the Northern Ireland's own bizarre version of the European Union Elections:

Northern Ireland to top the poll? Saturday 30th May 2009

Bairbre de Brun 4/6

Diane Dodds 11/10

Jim Nicholson (or Ulster Unionist Candidate) 10/1

Jim Allister 14/1

Alban Maginness 25/1

Steven Agnew 80/1

Alliance Party 80/1

Speaking more of a punter rather than a partisan political anorak, I think the Dodds1odds are not too generous there at all, especially if as Paddy Power seems to be assuming Jim Allister polls in between 30,000 and 40,000. If that is the case, I think a 3/1 would be much more of a sporting bet for the lady who's promised to smash Sinn Fein.

And 4/1 for Mr Allister to poll more than 60,000...shurely some mistake?!

Number of first preferences for Jim Allister:
Jim Allister first preference votes?

0 - 10,000 7/1

10,001 - 20,000 9/2

20,001 - 30,000 3/1

30,001 - 40,000 9/4

40,001 - 50,000 4/1

50,001 - 60,000 6/1

60,001 or more 4/1

Polling in as (Paddy seems to be suggesting here) 30,000 to 40,000 means Mrs Dodds' chance of topping the poll would be greatly reduced. The Union will probably survive.

1 comment:

Timothy Belmont said...

I oughtn't be so naive, but wouldn't it be reasonable to suppose that the 1, 2, 3, shall be DUP, SF, UUP again this year?

Admittedly, Allister is an unknown quantity. Judging by past independents, he'll lose.