THE latest polling shows the Welsh political map would turn blue in a general election if Labour’s turmoil continues.
The Tories believe the party could be on track for its best result since 1983, when it picked up 14 seats.
Today, it has just three MPs, and none was elected in 1997 or 2001.
The website Electoral Calculus suggests that if a snap election was called, the Welsh Conservatives would become Wales’ largest party and send 17 MPs to Westminster – two more than Labour.
From other comments, that seems a bit optimistic and it assumes a reasonably united and cohesive party, which, as pointed out here:
Mr Wigley said there would be a “fascinating tension” in the Conservative Party at the next election, between supporters and opponents of further devolution.
...is something which should not be taken for granted.
Conservative AM David Melding said such issues would be addressed during the drafting of the manifesto.
He said: “I think it’s something politicians in a devolved system have to expect, a certain difference of approach, simply because we are in different institutions.”
But the potential point of disagreement is the very constitutional state of both Wales and the United Kingdom, I really can’t see how “a certain difference of approach” on that particular topic can be accomodated within one party- you're either standing full-square behind the Union (and by extension, anti-devolution) or you're not.
2 comments:
I wouldn't rely on electoral calculus, it's a bit amateur. Anthony Wells' ukpollingreport has better notionals, although he doesn't try to predict results. Most commentors do on an individual seat by seat basis.
I wanted to write a reply but it became too long winded so I did a blog post and put it on my blog.
Anyway, I wanted to ask you about :
But the potential point of disagreement is the very constitutional state of both Wales and the United Kingdom, I really can’t see how “a certain difference of approach” on that particular topic can be accomodated within one party- you're either standing full-square behind the Union (and by extension, anti-devolution) or you're not.
I notice you describe yourself as as UK Unionist; an integrationist?
And out of interest would you have supported the UK Unionists when they were going?
And out of interest would you have supported the UK Unionists when they were going?
It's not why I label myself as such but, yes, I would have supported their principles which were broadly speaking a non-sectarian and integrated approach to the Union.
Unfortunately it became too much of a one-man band and for all his undoubted intelligence, Mc Cartney was too much of a divisive figure internally.
Post a Comment