Oh Happy Day!!!

Lessons to be learnt from the Republic's Election.

“95.1 % of the electorate have rejected Sinn Fein at the ballot box”…sounds great, doesn’t it, even if it was in an election south rather than north of the border.

Quite clearly (and contrary to their own assertions), Sinn Fein are seen by the vast majority of the Irish people solely as a Northern party, a party which now can only achieve success in British elections.

Naturally any defeat suffered by an organisation which waged war against their community and country for three decades is greeted with great joy amongst Unionists, but what longer-term lessons should Unionist be pulling from this result?

1. Sinn Fein’s power is concentrated almost 100% within Northern Ireland, in terms of policies they have absolutely nothing to offer the people of the Republic. Sinn Fein therefore needs Northern Ireland, they need its communal, sectarian division in order to cloak the fact that they have no realistic policies with which to govern and to retain their power. But, conversely, by exploiting these divisions for short-term electoral gain, the possibility of achieving a United Ireland by consent diminishes- they need to attract a sufficient number of the apathetic, apolitical middle (never mind Unionists) to achieve their dream. Unionists should realise this inherent weakness and develop more self-confidence in their own position within the UK.

2. The electorate of the ROI rejected the most stridently republican party. Do they still believe in Irish unity then? Yes, but not to the extent that it dominates their political thinking the way it does with nationalists and republicans in N.Ireland. Unionists should grasp the nettle as soon as possible and commission an independent costs and benefits analysis of Irish unity; if such an analysis would strengthen the economic case for a United Ireland it would already have been commissioned by Sinn Fein or the SDLP. If, as I suspect, it would paint a pretty discouraging picture (e.g. how would the typical citizen respond to an extra 800-1000 euros on their tax bill to keep their northern brethren on board?), then the Unionist case would be strengthened even further.

3. Why did Sinn Fein fail so miserably in the Republic? Their lack of realistic “bread and butter” policies. Are their “bread and butter” policies in Northern Ireland any more realistic? No, as I mentioned before, remove away their implicit sectarianism, their anti-Unionist and Brit baiting and you're left with very little indeed. Unionism should, therefore, start pushing them on the “bread and butter” issues- put them constantly on the spot regarding education, job provision (for N.Ireland) and so on. Stop playing into their hands and concentrating on the divisive, but ultimately secondary, issues such as the Irish language and parades.

4. Unionism has few friends in the Republic of Ireland, but the kind of Republicanism espoused by Adams and Co would seem to have even less. Informal alliances with suitable partners in the Rio’s the political and media elite will pay dividends for our cause in the long run.

5. Finally, this election has shown that Sinn Fein are not invincible, moving inexorably towards their final goal of a Marxist 32 county state. This election has shown they can be beaten and beaten well by exposing their inherent inconsistencies and hypocrisy, but it needs Unionism to develop a lot more self-confidence and long-term planning.

(Update: I kind of expected this, having had their idea of Irish Unity thoroughly stuffed at the ballot box, it’s back to concentrating the old sectarian numbers game…..a sign that they’re on the backfoot methinks)