Tuesday, January 25, 2011

What if they held a referendum and no one turned up?

This most certainly falls into the "Oh dear. So sad. Never mind." category:
The Tory leader of the House of Lords today warned there is a "real risk" that a referendum on changing the voting system may not be held on 5 May because of Labour's filibustering tactics over the parliamentary voting system and constituencies bill.

Lord Strathclyde told peers on the 12th day of debate on the committee stage of the bill that failure to conclude in time would "raise questions of our ability to revise" as he warned peers that ministers would consider changing the rules governing debate in the Lords if the impasse is not resolved.

The legislation needs to be passed by 16 February if a referendum on adopting the alternative vote (AV) system for Westminster elections is to be held on the government's preferred date.
The problem (for the advocates of the new system anyroads, nobody else really cares) is that if it does not fall on that preferred date of 5th May when all manners of other elections will be pulling people to the polling stations anyway, then the turnout is going to be lamentable.

I'm not sure how low it can go before it can be legally considered an invalid referendum, but if we were to change our political system on the basis of anything lower than 40%, then it would be a travesty of democracy.

5 comments:

Hen Ferchetan said...

No it wouldn't. If people don't vote then so be it, it could be for a myriad of reasons. But it shows that they don't have any problem with the change or with things staying the same.

Turnout is overrated in my opinion. It's nice to have high turnout but it should not cast any shadow on the result. The only important things in a democracy is that everyone has the right to vote and that the will of the majority of those who did vote is followed

O'Neill said...

"It's nice to have high turnout but it should not cast any shadow on the result."

Oh come on! If 20% bother themselves to vote on this one (and that figure is by no means beyond the realms of possibility depending on the final date chosen) you're not seriously telling me it wouldn't cast a shadow on the result?!

In several of the EU countries where refernedums are more common than the UK, 26% is used as the minimum necessary for either side to win the vote, I think we should sort out our legislation to incorporate that kind of provision.

Hen Ferchetan said...

Once you start setting minimum turnouts then you are effectively saying that anyone who does not vote is opposed to the plans. That is quite clearly untrue.

I am VERY uncomfortable with the idea of making non-voters "assumed" no voters because if they were actually opposed then they would have gone to the polling booth and voted so.

Low turnouts in referendums are not caused by people not wanting the thing voted on. Low turnout in referendums is caused by people thinking that the subject is too trivial to bother voting.

A low turnout in a referendum is more likely to be an indication that the legislation should have been passed without a referendum than it is a sign that people do not want the change.

O'Neill said...

A low turnout in a referendum is more likely to be an indication that the legislation should have been passed without a referendum than it is a sign that people do not want the change

...or an alternative argument, people think it is so trivial a topic that it doesn't matter one way or the other if it's implemented?

Hen Ferchetan said...

Quite possible - and that is certainly true for the Welsh referendum. There's no huge constitutional change on offer, it's a tidying up exercise after the mess that was the Government in Wales Act 2006.

Even as a nationalist there's nothing in the actual referendum to get massively excited about - 2006 was a much bigger constitutional change.

The only thing that excites me about this referendum is the fact that so few people seem to be opposed to it. Coming from the knife edge of 1997 to this shows how much opposition to devolution has collapsed (even if it hasn't been countered by huge enthusiasm either)