Squeeky bum time for Salmond

I tend to take opinion polls with a pinch of salt, nevertheless YouGov has been proven to be one of the more accurate pollsters in terms of forecasting correct results over recent times:

Tory optimism that they are on course to win more seats in Scotland than the SNP in this year’s General Election was strengthened yesterday by a new opinion poll which showed them neck-and-neck with the Nationalists.

The poll for The Scottish Sun put both parties at 21 per cent support — far behind Labour on 37 per cent but well ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent.

Hard to believe, I know, but The Scottish Sun does appear to have been a bit fact-deficient on this one and for the sake of a headline has mucked about with the stats, amalgamating previous polls. The real one, courtesy of YouGov, is here and actually the figures are even worse for the SNP (Con 23, Lab 45, SNP 20), however it is an extremely small sample of voters (185), so this is probably a justified reaction:

The SNP said they would be making no comment on the poll on the grounds that the sample used was not big enough.

Hasn’t stopped them before though; this from July last year:

"The Scottish breakdown of the latest Populus poll for the Times on Westminster voting intentions shows the SNP ahead in the third poll sample this month with 31% support to 28% for Labour.

Commenting on these findings SNP Business Convener and Westminster Leader Angus Robertson said:

"These are very good poll results for the SNP. Not only do they show that the next Westminster election is a clear two horse race between the SNP and Labour but that it is the SNP which is leading."

The sample sized was an unweighted 145 (ie 20% less than the one that the SNP have refused to comment on because ah...the sample used wasn’t "big enough"), a fact admitted and kind of dismissed anyway in favour of the "bigger picture" by Robertson:

"Though it is a small sample it is significant and indicative of the strong trend of increased support for the SNP for both Westminster and Holyrood elections, on the back of our solid policy delivery in government."

Right you are then.

This, from Jeff, who is one of those rare beasts, a realistic, non-paranoid SNP supporter, should also ring the warning bells:

There does seem to be a creeping mindset of 'we're going to win, we're out-canvassing and out-knocking the rest. Don't believe the polls except our private ones and Labour, just cos they're Labour, can't pull it off'. Meanwhile, and I choose my words after proper consideration, the SNP looks set for a trouncing. A return of 12% of the seats from the (successful) Government of the day would be pitiful and noone has the right to act too surprised if that's what transpires.

If the Scottish Conservatives defeat the SNP in terms of number of seats won, then I’m also quite likely to be partnering Wayne up front with Utd in Madrid later on in the spring – I just can’t see either event happening to be honest.

Yet...if the SNP don’t do much better than what the polls and more disturbingly (due to their propensity not to lose money) the bookies are presently predicting, then I’d expect questions will start to be asked internally about where Mr Salmond is leading the party.

For reference, this morning’s odds from Billy Hill’s on seats to be won by the SNP at the next General Election:

0-5 Seats: 10/1

6-10 seats: 2/1

11-15 Seats: 7/4

16-20 Seats: 9/2

21-25 Seats: 9/1

Over 25 Seats: 9/1