...the bastards!"
Dick Tuck might have quipped if he were a Unionist apparachnik this morning.
The early rumours suggest a comparatively bigger drop in the turnout for the European Election in what are lazily described as "Unionist" areas. Bearing in mind that you don't have to live in a "Unionist" area to be able to vote for a "Unionist" candidate (and vice-versa obviously) and bearing in mind that the total turnout hasn't even been calculated yet, what potentially does this all mean specifically for the Conservatives and Unionists' project in Northern Ireland?
Quite simply if there was only a turnout of 40%, then there is a potential vote of 60% which hasn't been persuaded to the Unionist cause.
The question is how that 60% might be persuaded in future; the three options apparently on offer respectivelyfrom the TUV, DUP and the Conservatives and Unionists were/are/may be :
1. No Surrender,(No Surrender, No Surrender to the IRA).
2. Smash Sinn Fein (during elections, "govern" with them at all other times).
3. Develop a more inclusive form of secular, modern and civic Unionism which looks primarily to bring N.Ireland closer to the political, social and cultural norms enjoyed on the British mainland.
Which option is most likely to be successful at pulling in as much as possible of that 60% non-voters do you think?
Update
Dupes brought to their knees!
12 comments:
Maybe, just maybe, the problem with all 3 of those options is that the politics of these options are predominately dominated by "Union" question.
It is quite possible that people have tired of the NI politics of the last decade or more, and even further possibly.
Maybe people have accepted the status quo will remain as is with regards to the question of the "Union". The union has been secured for the foreseeable future in a form that people are possibly happy to settle with.
The ordinary Mr and Mrs Joe soap is probably more concerned about their jobs, their homes, the drop in their incomes, their sons and daughters education, council rates, lack of broadband access, cost of education and so on.. the ordinary stuff that seems to get pushed down the agenda.
Is telling people that closer union with the UK will bring relief to all of these problems any different to SF saying that closer links with the ROI will bring relief to these same problems ?
Maybe people want the issues outlined above addressed NOW..
Maybe people are tired of the disdainful politics that arise from either side trying to rock the status quo.
Maybe they are just bored with that type of politics, and have turned off.
Or maybe its just disillusionment with the parties, knowing that most say one thing and once elected, do otherwise. Whether its entering government with SF or jumping on the expenses bandwagon.
Personally, I believe that politics, as it is currently practised in these islands, has reached a point where people have become far too sceptical of those that practice it.
People see the main political parties as indistinguishable from each other, in our out of government. I dont think the ordinary joe believes that any of the major parties has the resolve, nor the talented people to solve the major social and economic problems we face at the moment. I think higher levels of education over the last century has brought this on. People can see through the parties, when in the past they may have respected them more because of their positions of authority.
When you think about it, we elect teachers, local activists, solicitors and other professions into government. We give them positions of power in areas which they have no knowledge or expertise. To do what ? They will be massively susceptible to influence by their civil servants and by advisor's. Its a crazy system when you think about it. Maybe its not the right system anymore. Maybe its a system for a time gone by and is not suitable for demands of these times.
Ive no idea what the alternative is. I do fear that were a far right party to form with a polished engine, run by talented orators, media savy people, then we could all be in trouble.
I duno.. ive possibly become over cynical now that im out of my 20s.
kinda wandered off topic there.. sorry
NO, it was a good piece of reflection. I wonder if the C & Us forgot about their last part of their name (ie the U!) would they be able to sell a more widely accepted message.As with the Scottish and Welsh Conservatives take for granted the Union's here to stay and concentrate more of promote the modern version of "caring" conservatism?
I'm a hyporcrite to say this because I'm one of the DUP's biggest critics, but what if the C&Us also forgot to mention them in a campaign? Did we gain any more votes due to the occasional pops at the DUPes- doubt it.
I think i'm starting to wander now as well!
Also it was supposed to be a European election, not a council or Westminster vote, but as usual the Dodds, De Brun & Allister tickets kept their sectarian messege alive here. "Its workered for almost 20 years why wouldn't people want more of the same?"
Jim Nicholson was almost a silent actor, relying on Cameron and others to promote their agenda.
Politicians have made themselves unattractive to most voters.
NO, it was a good piece of reflection. I wonder if the C & Us forgot about their last part of their name (ie the U!) would they be able to sell a more widely accepted message.As with the Scottish and Welsh Conservatives take for granted the Union's here to stay and concentrate more of promote the modern version of "caring" conservatism?
Its hard to know. Unionist folk probably would ideally like the situation where they could just vote for the conservatives or labour party the same as any other UK citizen, but then I wonder.
Would people prefer the idea of NI parties because they feel these parties are more familiar to NI's needs.
Do people inherently distrust the Conservative and Labour parties because of their past dealings with NI. Would they feel that NI could be sold out were there not a local party, whether completely independent or associated with a larger party, available to defend their interests where their interest clashed with the policy of the major UK parties.
I use the term 'naive optimism' kindly here.
I have applauded your approach to bigotry in politics several times O'neil, but the sad fact of the matter is that Unionist politicians in the main deliver what the Unionist electorate want. They have always played up imaginary fears, or totally exaggerated events to rile your ordinary Unionist. A bit like how Blair and Bush created a bogeyman that needed draconian measures to deal with it. I bet should the union need to be saved in a border poll there would not be a 60% deficit.
Anyhow don't let my cynicism haud ye back. Onwards and upwards as is oft heard roon these parts.
I think you are beginning to hit the nail on the head with this trail. The Conservative Party just doesn't have the guts (nor the UUP, needless to say) to drop the Unionist word. It's baggage. It actually damages the prospects of the Union by using it, ironically. Unionism defines us as different rather than integral - ask a Londoner what Unionism means and he or she will likely answer "those crazy Irish".
It's time to take the Union as a granted because it's no longer in question. All the local Parties are Unionist now. So constantly wittering on about it causes voters to yawn.
It will be amazing if Nicholson gets elected given the poor turn-out. He was a dull candidate who did very little to present the case for change. The local Conservatives need to take their share of the blame for letting the UUP walk all over them and present this candidate as a fait accompli.
Now's the time to move on, adopt national Party branding and get rid of that bloody Unionist word.
It's time for the Conservatives to seek a mandate to govern this place and not to be ashamed of its brand.
In Scotland & Wales the big three represent the Union, while the Nats have their own parties, talk of throwing off the name unionist is very premature.
If Northern Ireland was to play it's full part within the UK should our choices not be the same? However it won't happen anytime soon, the Conservative & Unionist NF is atleast an attempt in that direction.
"Would they feel that NI could be sold out were there not a local party, whether completely independent or associated with a larger party, available to defend their interests where their interest clashed with the policy of the major UK parties."
Kloot,
This would be the DUP approach. As has been intimated, the Union however is pretty much settled and the battle is now on more mundane regionalist interests (eg funding, cultural affairs). The GFA put in stone whay was already true in practice, it's only the people of NI who can decide its constitutional future. Perhaps it's now time to develop a bit more self-confidence and move onto truly UK-wide style politics, rather than isolating ourselves on the fringes.
"They have always played up imaginary fears, or totally exaggerated events to rile your ordinary Unionist."
It hasn't (at least from the DUP's pov) worked this time. Also the lowest turnout has been in those kind of areas where people have been used as cannon-fodder in the past (ie urban w/c).
"I bet should the union need to be saved in a border poll there would not be a 60% deficit."
Exactly. So why don't the DUP/TUV told their people that? Do they not think they can handle the optimism of the truth?
Naive optimism it may be, but IMO the Conservatives and Unionists have a very real opportunity to revolutionise politics here- it's a time for stout hearts not squeeky bums!
"It will be amazing if Nicholson gets elected given the poor turn-out. He was a dull candidate who did very little to present the case for change."
Jeffrey,
Oh ye of little faith! Apart from that, as I've said before perhaps it is time to take the Union for granted- but i also think you underestimate the potential within the UUP to be a part of a (excuse the expression;)) new force to push politics on here out of the comfort-zone.
eXposer,
"In Scotland & Wales the big three represent the Union, while the Nats have their own parties, talk of throwing off the name unionist is very premature."
I can see where you're coming from, I was talking more in a metaphorical sense, not letting the Union predominate all policy and discussion. An examination of how the Scottish and Welsh Conservative parties operate is interesting in that respect. Eg no one can accuse the Welsh Conservatives of not being Unionist, yet it's not included in their name- secondly they have enough confidence in their identity to pursue a policy on the Welsh language which if transplanted to NI and "Irish" would cause all kinds of *interesting* reactions!
We live in interesting times regarding who will be elected in the north of Ireland. I do worry about the implications of a large vote for Allister though. Could we really have a scenario whereby Nationalists and moderate Unionists are relying on this new UUP/Tory grouping(with so many arch-bigots resident) allied with SF to save the peace process from the TUV fundamentalists? Whilst the original TUV with Pete the punt at the helm morph into Trimble mark 2.
>>"They have always played up imaginary fears, or totally exaggerated events to rile your ordinary Unionist."
It hasn't (at least from the DUP's pov) worked this time.<<
True in the case of the DUP but I would factor in a few other reasons. It certainly seems to have worked with the new (old)DUP, in the form of the TUV.
Imagine a stranger reading the above, they would not have a scooby ;¬)
Post a Comment