Whilst the Celtic Tiger is slowly becoming all fur-coat and no teeth in its middle-age*, Belfast remains in the midst of an unprecedented economic boom. Of course, Northern Ireland's underlying structural problems (eg a grossly obese public-sector and a corrupt, self-serving quangocracy) remain; but still, it promising news that it is now third in the “league of the UK's strongest cities in economic terms, behind Edinburgh and London”.
*And rather bizarrely, this is apparently better news for Sinn Fein, than the Unionists.
6 comments:
A successful Northern economy would actually favour Sinn Féin more than it would favour the Unionists. When people are talking about the problems of a United Ireland, the first argument from Unionists is that the people wouldn't vote for it. Increasing trends seem to disagree.
They then go to the argument that the South wouldn't want us. This is also an argument that fails to hold water as most opinion polls suggest that the South would unite if they could, there just not going to fight for us.
The last argument is that the South couldn’t afford a United Ireland. A more successful Northern economy would make that less of an issue and actually make a United Ireland easier as Northern Ireland weans itself of Westminster's purse strings.
In days gone by it was Republican strategy to destroy the Economic framework of the North to destabilise the North and force a United Ireland. Now, that would be a smart strategy for the Unionists to develop, for with every £1 more made in Belfast, the North moves one step further away from Britain.
A successful Northern economy would actually favour Sinn Féin more than it would favour the Unionists.
But why? If somewhere is an economic success, there is less inclinition to rock the boat surely?
When people are talking about the problems of a United Ireland, the first argument from Unionists is that the people wouldn't vote for it. Increasing trends seem to disagree.
Since 2001, the difference in those voting between unionism and nationalism has stabilised, the increasing trend is that more and more people are no longer voting 35% plus. Now, what’s their views on an all-Ireland state? We can’t know for sure, BUT they must be reasonably happy with the present status quo, otherwise they’d be already voting for either the SDLP or SF.
They then go to the argument that the South wouldn't want us. This is also an argument that fails to hold water as most opinion polls suggest that the South would unite if they could, there just not going to fight for us.
There is undoubtedly still an emotional tie, but as you say:
1.They wouldn’t “fight for us”.
Also,
2.The future of NI is way down their list of priorities
3.They have a settled society, economically, socially and politically. Why risk all that for the unknown effects of bringing 800,000 plus resentful new citizens?
The last argument is that the South couldn’t afford a United Ireland. A more successful Northern economy would make that less of an issue and actually make a United Ireland easier as Northern Ireland weans itself of Westminster's purse strings.
The economic future is very hard to predict, however two facts will remain the same:
1.The UK's is a much larger economy than the ROI’s
2.The UK’s population is 11 times that of the ROI
So, even if NI is an economic success, our pensions and social benefits will still need to be paid somehow- and whilst the tax-payer base of the UK is some 25 million that of the ROI is just over 1.8 million
In days gone by it was Republican strategy to destroy the Economic framework of the North to destabilise the North and force a United Ireland. Now, that would be a smart strategy for the Unionists to develop, for with every £1 more made in Belfast, the North moves one step further away from Britain.
The smart strategy for Unionists to adopt would be to exploit the ROI’s comparitive economic strength for NI’s benefit, without sacrificing any political leeway-and at the same time using our position within the 5th biggest economy in the world to a fuller potential.
"But why? If somewhere is an economic success, there is less inclination to rock the boat surely?"
A successful Northern economy will help integrate with the South better, especially as the North will start to be able to pay its own in the world. Also a successful economy will show Sinn Féin in a favourable light in the South as it was questions of their economic ability that cost Sinn Féin in the Dáil Elections.
Since 2001, the difference in those voting between unionism and nationalism has stabilised, the increasing trend is that more and more people are no longer voting 35% plus. Now, what’s their views on an all-Ireland state? We can’t know for sure, BUT they must be reasonably happy with the present status quo, otherwise they’d be already voting for either the SDLP or SF.
This is done quite roughly speaking, so don’t nitpick at .2% her and there
In the 2003 Assembly Election the combined Unionist vote was roughly 51% (DUP 26%, UUP 23% and about 2% for the PUP, UKUP etc). The combined Nationalist vote was roughly 41% (SF 24%, SDLP 17% and the rest of the nationalist where too small to count). This is a difference of 10% between Unionism and Nationalism.
In the 2007 Assembly Election the combined Unionist vote was roughly 46% (DUP 30%, UUP 15% and about 1% for rest). The combined Nationalist vote was roughly 42% (SF 27%, SDLP 15%). This is a difference of 4% between Unionism and Nationalism. In 4 years the gap between Unionism and Nationalism closed by 6%. If a similar event happens in the next four years then there would be a larger Nationalist vote in Northern Ireland, than a Unionist vote. Though, as it probably is now, the vote would depend on those in the middle, for example, those who vote Green Party and those who vote Alliance Party.
2.The future of NI is way down their list of priorities
3.They have a settled society, economically, socially and politically. Why risk all that for the unknown effects of bringing 800,000 plus resentful new citizens?
And when it comes to a referendum on unification those issues will probably not be brought up. Most parties in the South indorse Irish unity, including Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Sinn Féin. There probably isn’t going to be a serious debate on the pros and cons of Unification. And while the future of Northern Ireland isn’t a high priority for the Republic at the minute, they aren’t going to ignore us if the prospect of Unification comes up.
The economic future is very hard to predict, however two facts will remain the same:
1.The UK's is a much larger economy than the ROI’s
2.The UK’s population is 11 times that of the ROI
So, even if NI is an economic success, our pensions and social benefits will still need to be paid somehow- and whilst the tax-payer base of the UK is some 25 million that of the ROI is just over 1.8 million.
This is all true, but what happens if the Treasury re jig or scrap the Barnett formula? Who pays for it then because there is an increasing trend in England that the English don’t want to pay it. Northern Ireland currently gets £9,385 per person. If Barnett gets scrapped, Northern Ireland gets £7,362 per person, a shortfall of £2,023 per person, or £3,523,256,800 per year, which is almost half the Executives budget. Northern Ireland’s financial status as a ward of England is not as secure as you may want it to be.
The smart strategy for Unionists to adopt would be to exploit the ROI’s comparative economic strength for NI’s benefit, without sacrificing any political leeway-and at the same time using our position within the 5th biggest economy in the world to a fuller potential.
See I think trying to pitch Northern Ireland a UK economy just isn’t going to work. Northern Ireland is insignificant in UK terms. The North makes up 2.87% of the population of the UK. It has a better chance with the development of Economic links with the Republic, sacrificing political leeway if necessary, and attempt to get the investment that bloomed the Celtic Tiger. We make up 28% of the population of this island, and we should try to gear ourselves in the direction of taking about 30% of the investment on this island.
Since 2001, the difference in those voting between unionism and nationalism has stabilised, the increasing trend is that more and more people are no longer voting 35% plus. Now, what’s their views on an all-Ireland state?
Oneil by not voting they are voting. No one wins an election or referendum on possible votes but on votes cast. those that don't vote simply dont count
Oneil by not voting they are voting. No one wins an election or referendum on possible votes but on votes cast. those that don't vote simply dont count
That's of course true.
But do you not think that the turnout in a Border referendum would be higher than, for example, the last Assembly election?
But if they do stay at home then on present figures Unionism would still win (narrowly).
Seamus,
When I've a bit more time I'll answer your comment in depth.
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