The latest rejection of separatism was based on the Scottish National Party's preferred question in a referendum.
It wants to ask voters in 2010 if they agree or disagree that "the Scottish government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state
The results:
The "No" vote has a clear 12 point lead over the "Yes" vote, with 48 per against independence, 36 per cent in favour and 14 per cent unsure
And the remaining 2% were too busy watching Eastenders or whatever to even answer the phone presumably. But back to the results, a majority believe in continuing the Union; I’d say that’s true, but I’d also say that the size of the majority is a very fluid one dependent on current events and you really can not read too much into or rely on that figure transferring to the actual “do or die” referendum. And there is always a fair degree of putting your own interpretation on the results; instead of “only a third believe in separation”, how about “less than 50 %” wish the Union to continue”?
The more intriguing aspect of this survey is the fact that with the drop in favour of separation, there has been a simultaneous and apparently contradictory rise in the popularity of the party which actually has Scottish independence as its raison d’etre. There are different interpretations which can forward for that (an idiot of a PM and the meltdown of Scottish labour are two good ones to start with), but if it does turn out to be a long-term trend, it poses challenging questions for Unionism. And not all of those questions need have negative solutions; for the immediate future of the Union, it’s imperative that we get rid of Brown and that the Labour Party in Scotland is completely shaken up and revamped (having the Scottish Tories remembering they are also a Unionist party would also be a nice bonus, but that’s probably too much to hope for at the present moment). If those two tasks can be achieved without too much of a dent in the majority for the Union, then I think that a temporary rise in the SNP’s popularity may not be too high a price to pay.
4 comments:
A thoughtful post.
As a gradualist Nat I take a similar view to you. I find the fact that less than half of those who responded are not content with the constitutional status quo a far more interesting statistic than those who support impendence.
I think it is incredibly interesting that at least 1 in 3 people would actively want to dissolve the state they live in. I think Scots Unionism is much more precarious than some would believe. The union is largely voluntary and every generation of Scots judges whether it�s worth their while to continue or not. Hitherto they have been scaremongered into believing it is. Scrapping of the Barnett may change that greatly.
But I think the overwhelming feeling of britishness is not as crucial a factor as many suggest. I have very rarely had a conversation about independence with a sceptic who didn�t want it because they felt more British or they based it on nationality or identity. The vast majority say, �but we couldn�t afford it� or �what about X, Y or Z?� rather than I�m British and that�s how I want to stay. British Social attitude surveys seem to back this up.
The Union, in Scotland anyway, is much more based on economics that people realise. I firmly believe in our EU era it�s only a matter of time before the economics of independence win through.
Those that are 100% committed either way are less than 50%, I'm sure of that.
It's a very similar situation to NI, in that both Unionists and Nationalists are forgetting that the object is not to convince each other (or failing that, to let off a bit of steam with a few choice insults). It's the uncommitted the neutrals, those more interested in civic rather than cultural or ethic/national values.
At the minute, by default, I think most of this group would vote in a "last ditch" referendum to keep the Union...I don't know that for sure, but there is always a bigger onus is always on those who wish to change the status quo to vote and make their voice heard and the SNP and the pro-independence movement is still a long way off being a majority. But there's also certainly no room for complacency.
"It's the uncommitted the neutrals, those more interested in civic rather than cultural or ethnic/national values- who are the key"
http://www.snp.org/node/14022
I don't know if I trust this survey O'neil. Not being biased(honest) but the Sunday Herald polls have been a bit more consistent. And this wouldn't be the first poll that differed greatly from the norm. I find some of the findings hard to believe.
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