SCOTTISH Labour faces a "bloodbath" this summer as leading figures in the devastated and divided party battle each other to succeed Wendy Alexander as leader.
Her shock resignation yesterday launched a leadership campaign that insiders warn will expose the bitter splits among parliamentarians and activists that have been brewing in the months since Labour lost control of Holyrood.
...or actually, oh yes, it can...
The Glasgow East by-election, caused by the ill-health of MP David Marshall, is the last thing Brown needs, coming so soon after the mauling at Crewe and Nantwich and the absolute humiliation at Henley.
A 13,507 Labour majority in a West of Scotland seat, needing a 22% swing to the Nats, would normally be taken for granted, but these are not normal times. Labour will be glad to get away with a halved majority or any majority at all. Anything worse would have dire consequences for Brown.
For the long term future of the Union, perhaps such a short-term victory for the nationalists may be necessary and even to be hoped for; Brown is a liability, not only to his own party, but more importantly, also to the Union. I suspect events in Scotland are moving to a climax and a victory for the SNP in Glasgow East could well create pressure within nationalism for the date for the referendum to be brought forward. Even if they stick to their guns and stay with 2010, they will find it a lot harder to be running from the front, leading the race, rather than sitting back and watching the Labour Comedy Show do their work for them. The removal of Brown and the realisation of how much danger the Union could and should have the result of shaking the Unionist Establishment out of their present complacent state.
And I don’t really get this:
...Labour MPs will demand that the new Holyrood leader scraps support for an independence referendum, insisting that the party returns to a strongly Unionist line. But many MSPs are calling for the new leader to be given complete authority over the Scottish party, to silence SNP claims that they have to bow to the party's London HQ.
Support for a referendum on the question of independence is not all inconsistent with a “Unionist line”. If the Unionist Establishment are not confident about taking their argument for the Union to the electorate, then they have no right to be in the position of responsibility to our nation that they are presently in.
Update:
Looks like I may well get my (perverse) wish: SNP to win?!
5 comments:
Interesting one this by-election.In2005 Labour took over 60%of the vote here.So normally you would expect an easy Labour win.However with the economy the way it is,Labour in chaos and (from what I hear) the SNP govt impressing a lot of people in Scotland there is a chance of an SNP gain.I think also that the failure of Labour in Scotland couldbe a lesson for Unionists in N.I not to take your core supporters for granted.However it is ironic that Unionists like myself are hoping for a victory in a constieuncy that has Parkhead in it.
I reckon that they are treating English and Scottish electorates as one Oneil. The forecasters perhaps don't realise that they are different. Labour sadly won't lose much of her core vote. It is how well the SNP campaign to get others out to vote.
Ok, I take your point, but even so a year ago, who would have predicted a Labour loss in somewhere like Crewe? And given their shambolic state both sides of the border, I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that the SNP give them a bloody nose here. Whatever the result, Brown's days are numbered.
And the latest odds from Ladbrokes:
To win the seat:
SNP --- 8/13
Labour --- 6/5
Conservatives --- 100/1
Liberal Democrats --- 100/1
I wish the bookies were right but sadly they are wrong. It is a principal that I never back against Celtic or Scotland, would it be so wrong to bet against my party?
I'll let you know.
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