SCORES of Conservative voters have abandoned their hostility to devolution and around 40% want to see a law-making Welsh Parliament, according to new academic research.
Away from that rather nonsensical headline (“scores” means groups of 20s, say “thousands” or “hundreds” and then we are may be talking about something meaningful)there are three interesting assumptions you can draw from this study:
1.Only a quarter of Plaid Cymru supporters still want independence.
2.A minority (albeit a close one on the case of labour and Plaid Cymru) are backing a parliament.
3.The Conservative party in Wales is seriously divided on the issue with a 60-40 split against the idea of converting the Assembly into a parliament.
6 comments:
You call the article spin but then do the same thing yourself!
Firstly it is safe to assume that everyone who picked independence would also support a parliament referendum. The article makes it clear that the Parliament option had the most support, it doesn;t give the total figures so we cant say one way or another whether it's a minority or majority, but it;s certaintly the option with most support.
secondly it's weird to say only a quarter of Plaid STILL want independence, have you seen this poll done before?
As Scotish polls show us, when you offer a "devolution-plus" option support for independence falls, if you offer a straight yes/no question then support for independence soars. that might not be true of the welsh population as a whole, but it certaintly is of Plaid supporters. A straight yes/no independence question to Plaid supporters would have a majority yes (although I don;t believe it would be a near unanimous one)
Finally, the article has a point when it highlights the 60:40 Tory against issue. In 1997 the Tory vote was 90:10 against any devolution, it's now a 73:27 in favour of some devolution, with nearly 40% supporting MORE devolution - that is a HUGE change in ten years, and ismainly due to the way the Welsh Tory party (outside westminster) has taken to devolution and the good job their party have done in the Assembly.
I spoke at a Fringe Meeting during the last Lib Dem Conference in Liverpool. Alan Beith MP publicly declared his opposition to the Welsh Assembly being upgraded to a full Parliament - despite being the Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee reviewing Devolution. No impartiality there!
HF
You call the article spin but then do the same thing yourself!
And that's why I titled the post, "Another Poll-spin";)
Re the first point, yes, although, as you say, with the figures it is hard to judge whether it's a majority or not.
re Plaid Cymru
secondly it's weird to say only a quarter of Plaid STILL want independence, have you seen this poll done before?
OK, for the sake of pedantry, drop the "still"- it still(!) leaves me puzzled that only 25% of a nationalist want (whether they think it's a realistic possibility or not) independence.
Finally, the article has a point when it highlights the 60:40 Tory against issue.
I think it's a potentially very damaging split in opinion there, although I suppose it will depend on how much autonomy HQ gives to individual Tory MLAs and constituency associations when making the decision.
Alan Beith MP publicly declared his opposition to the Welsh Assembly being upgraded to a full Parliament - despite being the Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee reviewing Devolution..
He's entitled to his opinion, I'm sure it would have been almost impossible to find a Chairman who is completely neutral on the question. I guess it'll be up to the full committee to make the final review.
I'd like to know what % of Labour's voters went for independence. I know Tories who want independence (but vote Tory because Plaid is left wing) but I've never heard of a Labourite who supports it!
As for the Plaid one, only a straight yes/no question would really give an indication of their support for independence (I'd estimate it at around 85%, but that's a TOTAL guess). Scotland polls have shown that in multi-option polls people are much more liekly to choose "the next step" before independence.
Wildgoose - Parliament will, in practical terms, have very little say on whether or not there will be a Welsh Parliament. Although they have to vote for there to be a referendum it is extremely unlikely that they will refuse to do so if the Assembly delivers a 2/3rd majority in favour.
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