Thursday, April 16, 2009

Dodds to beat de Brun?

Who knows...but it's certainly a question that's got our favourite impartial hack excited and with Paddy Power seemingly no longer offering odds on Euro 09, I've decided to open a new market for Brian and you all to place your bets* on :

If you fancy your chances just click on "Make a prediction"
Any suggestions (and odds) for other political "markets"?




*You're not using your own money here (so it's not really gambling for any Free Ps who may have been worrying), but a 1000 H$ given to you gratis by Hub-Dub.

6 comments:

Joe said...

First 2 seats seem secure but the destination of the final seat could be very close. There has always been a strong transfer pattern from SF to SDLP. givne the showing of TUV and the UUP vote holding up in this poll Could it be that the SDLP may slip in between the 2 other unionist candidates as happened in South Belfast?
An interesting election to be played out in the next 7 weeks!

O'Neill said...

Joe,

Too many imponderables with this at the minute, I think both SF and the DUP will poll less in total votes than last time (for the DUP drift to TUV and for SF perhaps stay at homes). But in all probability they will still top the poll. I think I've got the Ist preferences about right, with Nicholson holding a distinct advantage over the SDLP. But regarding the transfers, it's all up in the air!!

Carson's Cat said...

The transfers in this election will indeed be where the fun is. Its either Dodds or deBrun to top the poll. I think Dodds will sneak it in the end as SF's troubles I believe have not recieved the same kind of analyis or publicity as the intra-unionist rows.

Anyway, back to the issue. Nicholson has and always will need DUP transfers if he's to be elected. However, given that Cunningham House (or whatever its called now) seem to have decided on a very anti-DUP tack at the minute they may actually risk alienating sufficient DUP voters that they look elsewhere with their Number 2 vote. Its a tricky one for the UUP to do - they have to be out there looking for votes, but they really should realise their limitations and attempt to garner transfers from as wide a pool as possible, but with the main focus on the DUP.

The SDLP may benefit a little from SF dissatisfaction but just not enough. Allister's eliminated votes will probably go strongly to the UUP (purely on a mutual anti-DUP sentiment) which should boost the UUP enough.

It won't be a 2-count election like most of the other Euros and will drag out a little before we know exactly what's happening. Alliance transfers might come into play before Jimmy Nic can stop biting his nails - but I think he'll ultimately take the third seat.

Anonymous said...

Carson's Cat

Agreed.

My prediction for what its worth:

Diane Dodds: 155,000
Babs Brown: 150,000
Jim Nicholson: circa 85-90,000
All-Bran: 75-80,000
Parsley: 25,000
Awwister: 27,000
Greens: 7-8,000

It will be interesting to see if the dissidents run a candidate: perhaps they might tempt Bernadette out of retirement?

Anonymous said...

Yes, the dissidents will field a candidate under their newfound slogan of

"Brits In - Peace Out."

Conquistador said...

"Brits In - Peace Out."

That would make so much more sense if the Masserene soldiers' , Craigavon policeman's an Paul Quinn's murder had not taken place.