tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post8880072135474028674..comments2023-10-22T11:57:34.718+01:00Comments on A Pint of Unionist Lite: Crisis? What Crisis?!O'Neillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-60231613159476733642010-05-21T12:26:09.433+01:002010-05-21T12:26:09.433+01:00"Working class people are less inclined to ta..."Working class people are less inclined to take the trouble to vote or to register.'<br /><br />If it was purely a case of class or age, then those factors range across the board, ie it's not limited to nationalist potential voters. Just as a side-issue, the non-registration of working-class voters in Belfast and urban parts of NI is something certain members of the DUP have also O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-72641475322312688322010-05-21T11:26:20.855+01:002010-05-21T11:26:20.855+01:00Re the rest of the post, nothing to argue with the...<i>Re the rest of the post, nothing to argue with there. An interesting and potential scenario is that at some stage within the medium term, a majority of nationalist MPs, Assembly members or councillors are elected whilst the majority opinion (evidenced by a Border Poll which would inevitably take place in that case) showing a pro-Union majority. What then?</i><br /><br />I think we are a bit kenseinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-13923848950341827952010-05-20T18:55:40.986+01:002010-05-20T18:55:40.986+01:00"If it comes down, as you seem to imply here,..."If it comes down, as you seem to imply here, to an issue of havimg to register individually, I still don't see how that would impact more on the nationalist than unionist vote".<br /><br />Individual registration means having to take greater trouble to register. We can assume that this additional trouble will effect different groups to a differing degree. I'll give you a coupleCai Larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15349645242691098245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-69865681217502118852010-05-20T18:07:56.987+01:002010-05-20T18:07:56.987+01:00"The insistance on people regestering individ..."The insistance on people regestering individually would have an effect on working class people, those who live in houses with more than two people living there, those who are working away from home, students & possibly those of a younger age profile (these people are less inclined to take an interest in electoral matters than older folk)."<br /><br />If it comes down, as you seem O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-60835272857540951652010-05-20T17:13:20.612+01:002010-05-20T17:13:20.612+01:00East & West Belfast aren't comprable in so...East & West Belfast aren't comprable in socieconomic terms. There's no equivelant of Stormont, Ballyhackamore, Cherryvalley, Gilnahirk the residential areas adjoining the Knockbreda Carriageway in West Belfast.<br /><br />We do know that the anti fraud measures significantly reduced the numbers on the electoral register & the result of this is that there are far fewer people Cai Larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15349645242691098245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-77872487237972744542010-05-20T11:31:00.063+01:002010-05-20T11:31:00.063+01:00"The whole effort defeated it's own purpo..."The whole effort defeated it's own purpose"<br /><br />You're starting to contradict yourself surely? If SF (and the DUP to a lesser extent) had the party machinery to overcome the disadvantages suffered by primarily their core support then...<br /><br />Also, whilst you've pointed out what you see as the result of the Fraud legislation (a higher drop in nationalist turnoutO'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-17637102669804054032010-05-19T21:50:44.972+01:002010-05-19T21:50:44.972+01:00BTW - check the reduction in the electorate in (fo...BTW - check the reduction in the electorate in (for example) East & West Belfast - the difference is marked. Or if you like consider Nationalist & Unionist wards in South Belfast - again a huge difference.Cai Larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15349645242691098245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-88364586111496713652010-05-19T21:48:42.280+01:002010-05-19T21:48:42.280+01:00What you see is a gradual increase in like for lik...What you see is a gradual increase in like for like elections- which is all that I claim is happening. The 1% drop between 01 & 05 in Westminster elections was almost certainly caused by changes to the register. Also I haven't looked at the drop in the Unionist vote which I think slightly exceeds the increase in the Nationalist vote.<br /><br />On fraud the point I'd note a couple ofCai Larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15349645242691098245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-68039367406314907042010-05-19T21:17:03.648+01:002010-05-19T21:17:03.648+01:00Kensei
"Precisely. North Belfast is probably...Kensei<br /><br />"Precisely. North Belfast is probably still not close enough, but if it looks possible next time watch turnout go through the roof. Imagine Belfast with no Unionist representation."<br /><br />But it's the only seat afaik which may become marginal (and aren't there proposals for the amalgamation of the 4 constituencies)? Regarding Belfast with no Unionist MPs, O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-53942079314120787242010-05-19T21:09:47.077+01:002010-05-19T21:09:47.077+01:00Toques,
"An English parliament and governmen...Toques,<br /><br />"An English parliament and government will be arrived at by a withdrawal of the fringes from the centre - the rationale for Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish involvement in English affairs decreasing with each increase in devolution until the Status Quo becomes an absurdity"<br /><br />How far off is "the tipping point" where it becomes a mainstream issue? O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-28998495701509140582010-05-19T20:59:06.857+01:002010-05-19T20:59:06.857+01:00menaiblog
I didn't think I'd mixed them u...menaiblog<br /><br />I didn't think I'd mixed them up, but your figures surely prove my point ie in the last ten years a stagnation of the % round the 40-42% mark.<br /><br />Re the other point on elctoral fraud. I dug up this from the Deputy Returning Officer in 2003, I can't for the life of me see why this legislation penalised especially those pro-Irish Unity people legally O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-73583460511619214212010-05-19T17:28:42.209+01:002010-05-19T17:28:42.209+01:00Mr O'Neil
Two quick points:
If you compare e...Mr O'Neil<br /><br />Two quick points:<br /><br />If you compare elections you need to compare like with like & not mix them up. <br /><br />Westminster 92 SDLP + SF 33.5%, 97% 40.2%, 01 42.7%, 05 41.8%, 10 42%.<br /><br />Assembly 98 39.5%, 03 40.5%, 07 41.4%.<br /><br />The problem with anti fraud legislation is that it disenfranchises far more people than it prevents from cheating. Cai Larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15349645242691098245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-66778710410996652702010-05-19T16:57:14.414+01:002010-05-19T16:57:14.414+01:00I also think the composition of the present govern...<i>I also think the composition of the present government may make your job harder (ie in terms of mobilising newspaper and public support). If at the end of this parliamentary period you are nowhere nearer your aim (when handed a govt where the overwhelming majority represent English constituencies) then I'm really not sure where or what your next step can be.</i><br /><br />Whether the Garethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10021800974251370747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-74637168141251733622010-05-19T14:13:55.113+01:002010-05-19T14:13:55.113+01:00I'm not sure that changed in the intervening 1...<i>I'm not sure that changed in the intervening 10 years with the possible exception of S Belfast (ie it is probably the only extra marginal seat now compared to 2010.</i><br /><br />Precisely. North Belfast is probably still not close enough, but if it looks possible next time watch turnout go through the roof. Imagine Belfast with no Unionist representation.<br /><br /><i>More a 'kenseinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-51896705093930413142010-05-19T13:39:00.479+01:002010-05-19T13:39:00.479+01:002001 was also a period of intense competition betw...<em>2001 was also a period of intense competition between the SDLP and SF, so that will drive up the vote.</em><br /><br />The effect real competition has on policy and idea generation can be ven more beneficial than a temporary rise in votes in the longterm and its one of the main weaknesses Irish nationalism is suffering from at the moment. <br /><br /><em>Additionally votes were needed to O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-59362611762649435292010-05-19T13:25:57.378+01:002010-05-19T13:25:57.378+01:00Toque,
"So are the forces of nationalism con...Toque,<br /><br />"So are the forces of nationalism confined to those in nationalist parties, or those who vote for nationalist forces?"<br /><br />It's the easiest way to measure their strength but the answer is "no". And in a democracy it is very hard to change the political status quo without the driving force of a party behind you.<br /><br /><em>It wasn't just O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-89327594797470897002010-05-19T13:17:28.577+01:002010-05-19T13:17:28.577+01:00menaiblog,
OK, got you now. If it fell immediatel...menaiblog,<br /><br />OK, got you now. If it fell immediately post 2001 purportedly due to a tightening up on fraud, it doesn't explain why the gap hasn't narrowed since then, check the last graph on this post:<br /><br />http://sluggerotoole.com/2010/05/18/any-graphic-trends/<br /><br />There's a growing disconnect between the traditional demographic and voting patterns, that's O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-39737458296080753242010-05-19T12:21:31.269+01:002010-05-19T12:21:31.269+01:002001 was also a period of intense competition betw...2001 was also a period of intense competition between the SDLP and SF, so that will drive up the vote. Additionally votes were needed to secure seats for Nationalism, again driving up the vote.<br /><br />If you are interested in the sectarian carve up, it'll be councils and assmebly elections you need to keep an eye on, and seats as well as total votes. Nationalists tend to turn out if they kenseinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-38713974927656553882010-05-19T10:58:52.053+01:002010-05-19T10:58:52.053+01:00Sorry - I'm not making myself clear.
The 20...Sorry - I'm not making myself clear. <br /><br />The 2001 register in Northern Ireland had 1,192,136 names on it, whilst the register published in December 2002 contained 1,072,346 -a reduction of some 10% or 119,790 names. This was the result of the so called Electoral Fraud (Northern Ireland) Act 2002.<br /><br />The numbers fell far more in Nationalist Areas than in Unionist ones.<br /><Cai Larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15349645242691098245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-71066044145938542922010-05-19T09:34:44.356+01:002010-05-19T09:34:44.356+01:00So are the forces of nationalism confined to those...So are the forces of nationalism confined to those in nationalist parties, or those who vote for nationalist forces? <br /><br />I'm an English nationalist but the only nationalist party I've ever voted for is the SNP, and that was more of an anti-Labour vote than anything.<br /><br />The most illuminating part of Arthur's pice is this bit:<br /><br /><i>The only moment that I felt Garethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10021800974251370747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-80062734182761705942010-05-19T07:52:30.097+01:002010-05-19T07:52:30.097+01:00"Nope, that's not it..."
Well if it..."Nope, that's not it..."<br /><br />Well if it isn't (btw not sure about the sun being brighter under the Union) then what is it, what are the nats doing wrong?!O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-81613333391255120282010-05-19T07:51:07.987+01:002010-05-19T07:51:07.987+01:00menai blog
It's not clear whether you're ...menai blog<br /><br />It's not clear whether you're talking about Wales or NI. If it's Ni then the data here proves you wrong:<br /><br />http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/<br />The SDLP/SF vote is flatlining along 40-42%, 2001 was in fact a highwater mark.<br /><br />If it's Wales, the fact that you talk about nationalist/unionmist communities is slightly disturbing but I'd be O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02531858236570346203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-32970410946505768982010-05-19T00:08:22.979+01:002010-05-19T00:08:22.979+01:00I expect it's because the British Government h...I expect it's because the British Government has done such an incredibly sterling (lol, that was unintentional) job of making the UK the best place in the world to live. Great employment prospects; wonderful social services; economic bliss; education second to none and not just for the elite; health service that the rest of Europe can only dream about. Why, under Labour even the birds sang Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6008037633121035579.post-79913614694111992582010-05-18T22:14:43.243+01:002010-05-18T22:14:43.243+01:00Noswaith dda.
The 2001 election was fought using ...Noswaith dda.<br /><br />The 2001 election was fought using a very different electoral register to the 2003 Assembly one & the electorate was very much reduced. This was the result of a tightening of registration rules.<br /><br />The electorate was greatly reduced for both communities, but there was a far greater reduction in Nationalist constituencies. Since 2003 the Nationalist vote has Cai Larsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15349645242691098245noreply@blogger.com